The São Paulo housing market is living an active cycle. Yet, it is supported by an economic scenario of contradictory signals. The economy grows and unemployment hovers at historical lows, increasing the concession of housing credits to levels close to those of 2021, despite Selic interest rates at 15% a year.

This movement is primarily felt in Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV), a Brazilian housing program.

The program’s 2023 overhaul significantly expanded eligibility, and urban legislation also helped. “São Paulo is today the Brazilian capital city with the most ventures in MCMV”, says Ely Wertheim, chair of the Housing and Condominium Union of the State of São Paulo (Secovi-SP).

According to the entity, between October 2024 and September 2025, the city registered 110.947 units sold and 127.237 new launches. The Global Sales Value (GSV) reached R$59.1 billion. This number is larger than the one registered a year prior, when 104.431 units were launched and 103.346 were sold. The big novelty is that 65% of this whole market is from MCMV.

In the secondary market, FipeZAP shows an explosion of interest in smaller housing. Estates of up to 50 square meters jumped from 26% to 44% in sale searches. Units with up to two bedrooms went from 46% to 65%.

It is in this context that ventures such as Bem Viver Angélica, from Magik JC, arise. The developer, which has already built 32 buildings in the region since 2016, is now betting on a 40-square-meter typology distributed across three bedrooms.

There will be 258 units, 82 of which are thus configured, priced from R$380,000 and falling within the Popular Market Housing (PMH). “It is an attempt to service families that need more space, but don’t have access to larger products”, says the CEO André Czitrom.

The creation of Faixa 4 in MCMV has helped to make the model viable. Initial demand, according to the executive, primarily comes from small families who intend to use the third bedroom as a home office, living room, or flexible space, reflecting new trends in urban living.

The location also helps to explain the interest. Downtown São Paulo lives through a simultaneous cycle of public investments and attraction of private capital. Today, between 4.000 and 5.000 new units are being developed there, whereas two years ago, virtually nothing new was launched. “People want to live where there is infrastructure, and the downtown is back to offering that”, says the president of Secovi-SP.

While the basis of the pyramid is advancing at record speeds, the top also reviews its dynamics. Neighborhoods such as Vila Nova Conceição, Cidade Jardim, and Jardim Paulistano are still among the most expensive square meters in the country, with prices reaching over R$20.000.

Furthermore, developers specialized in this public are experiencing strong momentum. Such is the case of Trisul, which has accumulated a billion-dollar GSV in high- and very-high-end projects, boosted by resilient demand among buyers who don’t rely on traditional credit.

Simultaneously, the company is also acting in the economic segment of MCMV. “That is why we’re having good sales performance”, says Jorge Cury, president of Trisul. The company has made 2.7 billion in profits through new launches, a company record.

The middle range, however, lives in a vacuum. Housing priced between R$800,000 and R$3 million, typical of the middle class, is rare and comes with more expensive financing. Data from the Brazilian Association of Real Estate Developers (Abrainc) show that, for medium and high-end projects, net sales dropped by 20,5%.

It is for this reason that the São Paulo housing market is growing in both extremes. For 2026 and 2027, expectations are for a warmer market, with projected tax rate drops potentially also dropping Selic to around 12%.

The Brazilian Association of Housing Credit and Savings Entities (Abecip) estimates that for each 1 percentage point reduction in taxes, about 160,000 families gain the financial ability to purchase a house.

At the same time, unemployment at around 5,6% already indicates an almost entirely operating labor market, which tends to moderate the rhythm of income growth, ponders Coriolano Lacerda, Market Research and Intelligence manager at OLX group. “Besides, as a tradition, new launches decrease in election years.”