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Em dois dias acontece o primeiro debate oficial com Kamala Harris e Donald Trump (AFP/AFP Photo)
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Publicado em 8 de setembro de 2024 às 18h58.
Última atualização em 9 de setembro de 2024 às 10h36.
Dois dias antes do tão esperado debate televisionado, Kamala Harris e Donald Trump estão empatados nas pesquisas para a eleição presidencial dos EUA em 5 de novembro.
REVISTA EXAME: Um conto de seis estados: visitamos as pequenas cidades que vão decidir a eleição dos EUA
O último conjunto de pesquisas de opinião mostra que o magnata republicano, que se apresenta como porta-voz dos americanos empobrecidos e das vítimas da inflação, mantém uma grande chance de retornar à Casa Branca, apesar de seus problemas judiciais e do caos que cerca sua saída da presidência em 2021.
Harris, que conseguiu remobilizar o campo democrata após sua entrada tardia na campanha como substituta do titular Joe Biden, que desistiu da disputa, também tem grande probabilidade de vencer.
Nacionalmente, Trump, de 78 anos, tem apenas um ponto de vantagem sobre a atual vice-presidente Kamala (48% a 47%), de acordo com uma pesquisa do New York Times/Siena College realizada entre 3 e 6 de setembro, uma diferença muito pequena para sugerir uma tendência.
Ainda mais porque nos Estados Unidos a eleição é decidida por sufrágio universal indireto e seu resultado final depende de um punhado de estados decisivos para definir a maioria do colégio eleitoral que indicará a Casa Branca.
1/7 Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago (Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago)
2/7 Itens à venda em área da Convenção Democrata (Itens à venda em área da Convenção Democrata)
3/7 Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago (Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago)
4/7 Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago (Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago)
5/7 Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago (Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago)
6/7 Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago (Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago)
7/7 Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago (Palco da Convenção Democrata, em Chicago)
1/13 Former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives onstage to accept his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Andrew CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Day 4 - Republican Party presidential nominating convention)
2/13 Donald Trump, durante a Convenção Nacional Republicana, em Milwaukee (Day 4 - Republican Party presidential nominating convention)
3/13 An overall view as former US President and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump accepts his party's nomination on the last day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 18, 2024. Days after he survived an assassination attempt Trump won formal nomination as the Republican presidential candidate and picked Ohio US Senator J.D. Vance for running mate. (Photo by Pedro UGARTE / AFP) (Day 4 - Republican Party presidential nominating convention)
4/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump embraces the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore as he speaks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
5/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks next to the firefighter uniform of Corey Comperatore after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
6/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
7/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
8/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
9/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
10/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
11/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump walks on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Win McNamee/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
12/13 MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 18: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks after officially accepting the Republican presidential nomination on stage on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum on July 18, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Delegates, politicians, and the Republican faithful are in Milwaukee for the annual convention, concluding with former President Donald Trump accepting his party's presidential nomination. The RNC takes place from July 15-18. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Andrew Harnik / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP) (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
13/13 O candidato republicano à presidência, o ex-presidente dos EUA Donald Trump, fala após aceitar oficialmente a nomeação presidencial republicana no palco no quarto dia da Convenção Nacional Republicana no Fiserv Forum em 18 de julho de 2024, em Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (2024 Republican National Convention: Day 4)
De acordo com a mesma pesquisa, Kamala supera ligeiramente Trump em Wisconsin (50% x 47%), Michigan (49% x 47%) e Pensilvânia (49% x 48%) e estão empatados (em 48%) em Nevada, Geórgia, Carolina do Norte e Arizona.
De acordo com outra pesquisa da CBS News/YouGov, também realizada entre 3 e 6 de setembro e publicada neste domingo, a situação está particularmente próxima em Michigan (50% a 49% a favor de Kamala), Wisconsin (51% x 49%) e Pensilvânia (50%).
A incerteza é reforçada pela cautela quanto à confiabilidade dos próprios pesquisadores, que em 2016 subestimaram o voto em Trump, que acabou vencendo a candidata democrata e favorita nas pesquisas, Hillary Clinton.
A única certeza é que o primeiro debate televisionado entre Trump e Harris, programado para a noite de terça-feira (10) na Filadélfia, considerada o berço da democracia americana, é aguardado com ansiedade no estado-chave da Pensilvânia e será transmitido pela ABC.
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